The analysis starts on our three Republican (soon to be ex-) members of Congress

All it takes to start the ball rolling is a week of radio ads -- in Spanish, no less.

The analysis has started to percolate now that the Democratic establishment in Washington has written a check for a week of radio ads in Spanish criticizing our three Republican members of the U.S. House.

Well, they are proven opponents of healthy kids, now that they've voted to uphold the Bush veto of the SCHIP bill. So it must be pretty obvious that they're vulnerable in the '08 election. We're not the only ones to notice this. It also hit the thinkers at the Swing State Project, which analyzes "key races around the country," according to the banner on its web site.

So, we are now key races. That's a change of pace. People will be looking. Maybe even the Miami Herald will have to cover the candidates and their activities in the Herald's home county. I have been in the Herald building a few times -- a vast place teeming with staff and work -- and then while working on Dave Patlak's campaign for FL-18 (soon to be ex Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) last year I wondered why they never could spare anyone to cover our events. What were they all doing, if not covering congressional races.

Ah, later as election day drew near, it became clearer, though not satisfying. The editorial would come out saying that Congress is held in low esteem, but they'd endorse the incumbents anyway. Just a second: Isn't that a non sequitur -- that's Latin for Dummkopf-style thinking.

Anyway, the key races will have drama. In politics, that's big swing, meaning a lot of people seem to be about to change their minds.

This long analysis in Swing State Project rests on the report in The Hill (cited in my post earlier today on Raul and Joe) about the three Congressional races. And here's the drama and the nut graph in the SSP article:

"Could one, two or all three of these incumbents end up being the next Henry Bonilla, the Texas Republican who got trounced by Democrat Ciro Rodriguez in a district with a similarly red PVI (R+4.2) last December? Florida Democrats are eager to put the three incumbents to the test and are actively seeking challengers."

Oh, yes. As they say, let's "take these districts for a spin."

GLOSSARY Item: PVI, I'm told, stands for Partisan Voter Index, a way of measuring how strong one party or the other is in an electoral district. The numbers for the three are:

• CD 18-- R+4.3
• CD21-- R+6.2
• CD25-- R+4.4

Meaning they seem to be pretty reliably Republican. Until, like Henry Bonilla in Texas, the other side trounces his R+4.2.

THANKS to: Michael Calderin, for tipping me to the SSP item. Michael, running for State House District 119, has a long comment on the SSP link reminiscing on his run against Mario Diaz-Balart last year in District 25. Highly informative.