A landslide is available to us Dems if we work hard toward November

Check out the Gallup polling that shows what the potential is when a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president manage a success or two: suddenly a six-point lead, where before the picture looked gloomy.

Imagine the polls if President Obama's cautious handling of the BP oil disaster finally results in a secure shutdown of the well. This is within reach -- keep fingers crossed to prevent the laws of physics and geology from combining in a new explosion of the well. Polls now may show the public is dubious about the president's handling of the crisis. That will change bigtime when the well is capped.

Our job is to remain committed to work hard, and to avoid overly pessimistic moods.

Hello, Michael Putney, meet the Democrat running for Congress in District 18

It was pretty funny to hear the tremendously well-informed Michael Putney say to US Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen that she was running unopposed for Congress. Oh. no, replied the ever-alert member of the US House. I have an opponent. This was on live TV (I'm guessing it was live) Sunday mid-day, WPLG Local 10.

Well, here's the well-informed Democrat running to unseat the vastly incumbent Ms Ros. He's Rolando Banciella, born in Cuba, resident in South Florida since age 10.

If you look at his specs on http://banciella2010.info/, you'll see that his background is in real estate, and unlike the rich Democrat running for the US Senate, Banciella (click on the Who/Why link) didn't try to make a billion betting against home-owners and the banks but rather suggests that the government bail out the people with mortgages.

Sounds reasonable. He also has ideas for how to bring Social Security back to good health. Not to kill it, like Ms. Ros's party -- to bring it back to good health. And it sounds reasonable.

So, Michael Putney, how about retrieving your fumble on the Congressional races in your bailiwick, and inviting Rolando Banciella up for a talk. You've given his opponent a ton of time. Now's the time for fair.

Alex Sink at Democratic Party fundraiser in Little Havana

We see a little furrow of worry on the president's brow in this painting, and it's because Florida might not be quite up to putting him over the top again in 2012. We did it in 2008. And whether we do it again will depend a lot on whether we campaign long and hard this year, right now, and make Alex Sink Florida's governor.

Having her as a Democrat in the driver's seat for two years before election day 2012 will make a world of difference. She will veto the next Republican attempt to wreck our public schools -- you know it's coming up again, sure as Jeb Bush is calling the shots from his cave. She will drive the agenda and put a Democrat atop the news budget again. She will deploy her business skills to build jobs in partnership with the federal government -- not in blind opposition like the Republican contenders. With her in charge and the Fair Districts amendments in the Florida constitution, redistricting will be done fairly and we can expect our delegations to the Florida and US House to reflect public opinion more than Republican ideology.

We must be far-sighted in this. Quibbling about minor matters must stop. Enjoy watching our local Republicans show how NOT to get along.

This photo comes from the Thursday fundraiser at Cuba Ocho Art and Research Center in Little Havana, where Alex Sink was introduced by State Rep. Luis Garcia in his own District 107, where he's going for his second re-election in a formerly Republican district. Garcia calls Sink, currently the chief financial officer in state government, "the best mind in Tallahassee." He's 100 percent for making her the check and balance we need to block the Republican majority in the legislature.

Her view: "Tally is out of touch and out of control."

Our mission is to elect her.

She had a special request: "Put me on your Facebook page." You'll see her in fresh text and photos on the Miami-Dade Democrats group page. Now it's your turn.

FL-25: A perfect storm for David Rivera

In the political world among the worst things that can happen to a candidate are:

• Having a record of domestic violence revealed;
• Accusation (with documents) of unethical fund-raising;
• Financial difficulty including foreclosure;
• Rebellion in the ranks;
• Sign of hypocrisy in important Cuba policy area;
• All of the above in the space of a couple weeks.

What a run of luck for David Rivera! Is there a Quintifecta for hapless politicos? We were wondering why he had a passle of challengers for the Republican nomination to run in Congressional District 25. Turns out the state representative for District 112 is vying for centipede class in the Feet of Clay competition.

Especially delicious is that the likely Republican US Senate candidate, Marco Rubio, is Rivera's good friend and foreclosure partner.

Go, Joe! I'm planning to spend Sunday afternoon with Joe Garcia, the Democratic candidate in FL-25, watching the World Cup final. You can sign up at this link on Joe Garcia 2010. Your blogger's maternal ancestry is 100 percent Dutch, so I'll be rooting for the Netherlands.

Chin up, Dems. The long-term numbers are all in our favor

The email inbox hummed a little today with people passing around a political situationer by Robert L. Borosage, of the Campaign for America's Future. Monday being a rainy day with nothing special on, I shunned the delete option and actually read it. Here's a link to it: http://www.alternet.org/story/147361/

My overall impression was that there wasn't much in it we hadn't heard before, though it's a useful summary of the difficult political situation. I wouldn't argue with its facts, though I'd like to hear more advice than Chin up, the incumbent president always loses in mid-term elections, organize hard and do your best.

Later in rolled an email from The Democratic Strategist reporting on demographic analysis by Ruy Teixeira, whose work we progressives have been reading for several years. Here's a link to his paper:
http://www.americanprogressaction.org/issues/2010/06/pdf/voter_demographics.pdf

The drift therein is that demographic change is almost all in the Democrats' favor. The population groups that vote Democratic are mostly growing, while the Republican base is not. The paper runs close to 40 pages, but the first three pages will give you most of what you need with 3-4 minutes reading.

So I passed this back to the same list of email addresses the Borosage article had gone to, with this prescription:

This is even longer than Borosage's hand-wringer, but if you take 3-4 minutes and read the first three pages of this demographic look at our political landscape, you will see that we Democrats have all the advantage, while the Republicans may have a last gasp this year but are doomed thereafter and far into the future.

For now, my thoughts are that we must:
--Carefully identify and get to know our allies among those who vote but aren't otherwise politically active.
--Maintain allegiance of the Democratic base.
--Study the opposition and counter its arguments wherever we find them.
--Use social media and new technology to multiply the impact of our better ideas.
--Refine and intensify the tried and true methods like voter registration and GOTV.

Your thoughts are welcome in the comment section below.

FL-25: What a pair are Rubio and Rivera! Can they get away with this?

The Florida Democratic Party has the questions right on this odd business from Marco Rubio and David Rivera. Except that your blogger would like to know when the Republican Party will retrieve its purportedly high ethical standards and send this pair back down to lobbying? What are they doing as candidates for high federal office? Your blogger would like to know.

Here's what the Joe Garcia (my choice for election to the US House in Florida District 25) campaign is pointing out, in the words of the Florida Democratic Party:

From the Department of You Can Make This Up:  Miami Lobbyists Marco Rubio and David Rivera are holding a fundraiser together today in Washington, DC.


Last week, it was reported that Rubio and his self proclaimed “disciple” David Rivera purchased a house together and then defaulted on the payments, allowing the property to fall into foreclosure.

The pair of ethically challenged Republican politicians have now unwittingly opened up a can of worms when their embarrassing financial tactics were made public.

Some Questions That Need To Be Answered:

Did Rubio and Rivera willfully withhold mortgage payments that were owed based on their mortgage contract?

Did this tactic of withholding payments allow them to renegotiate or offer the house as a short sale?

In either case did they have to disclose their income and assets? If so, what are they?

What did their stalling and negotiating tactics cost the government in lost property values or tax write-off for themselves or the banks?

And is this whole mess just another example of Marco Rubio getting another sweetheart mortgage deal from his political allies?

FL-25: Joe Garcia rips David Rivera on offshore oil drilling

"Imagine if David Rivera had his way."

That's a little quote from Joe Garcia in a news conference yesterday about the BP oil spill. Check out the whole story on the Joe Garcia blog, which should be on your favorites menu.

You see, Rivera, who's the likely Republican candidate against Joe Garcia in US House District FL-25, was eager to have drilling for oil three miles from Florida's beaches. So, yes, stretch your mind and imagine a rig blowup and the oil hitting the beach in a few hours. Right here. Or over in Fort Myers where Aunt Molly retired, or Pensacola where your nephew is in the Navy. And anywhere in Florida where your economic future is vulnerable to globs of oil.

NY Times mag piece -- What do you think of this view of Obama as party boss?

From the opening teasers for this Sunday magazine piece about Barack Obama as "Democrat in Chief," your blogger was in disapproving mode. Why is author Matt Bai saying the president is the only recent holder of the office who wasn't a party strategist? I was asking myself. Didn't we elect him because he wasn't a party hack like the two Bushes? Didn't we choose a transformational president?

What do you think? The comments are available for you to let it out.

And why would the NY Times be saying this about the president as we head for mid-term elections for which the president's political arm is gearing up a strong campaign? We want Democrats to hold Congress as strongly as possible and to do well in statehouse races in Florida and nationwide. This is why we're working with Organizing for America to make it happen, and why we're recruiting volunteers, and why we're energizing our Miami-Dade County Democratic Party.

We're also hoping to learn from this tremendously successful political campaigner who's now in the Oval Office, and who has new ideas that the NY Times finds dubious.

Republican scandals grow larger. We must stretch out this campaign season

The front-page story in the Miami Herald -- Why below the fold? But anyway, an amazing story -- reads like a criminal indictment in every paragraph. That's assuming it's illegal to use political donations as a slush fund for party bigs.

http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/06/05/v-fullstory/1665855/scandal-stained-former-ally-contradicts.html?pageNum=2&mi_pluck_action=page_nav#Comments_Container

Congratulations, Beth Reinhard. What a story. Now let's see some followup. This will be the test.

We Democrats should try to postpone the November election, because the news can only become worse for Florida's Republicans, and the longer the wait for the vote, the worse they will look.

Nostalgic moment in kickoff for 2010 election campaigning

Phone banking has its moments, and there was one for me today. The list of names and numbers was supposed to be of people who voted for the first time in 2008 -- the ones who made the difference in Barack Obama's big victory, and who must come out in good numbers to make the November 2010 general election work for the Democratic ticket.

The first two pages were routine, few people home on a Saturday midday, some too rushed to speak, a couple glad to hear a Democrat calling. Then came a name with a pleasant memory jolt attached -- Nathaniel Sherwood. Wait, is that our Nate Sherwood, the first or second local staffer of Obama For America we received in Miami-Dade County? I checked the contacts in my phone. Sure enough, the same number. Living in mid-Beach then. Long gone now -- Was it to Colorado? -- but still in the local voter list two years later.

Nice to see you, Nate.

Here's an image of other  phone bankers in action on Saturday, Barbara Bizno and Peter Medvin, joining a nationwide drive as Organizing For America (the new name of Obama For America) starts contacting the throngs waiting to be summoned to vote again.

FL-17: Candidates forum in Little Haiti

Marleine Bastien, Haitian community activist; Phillip Brutus, former state representative; Dr. Rudy Moise, physician, businessman; State Rep. Yolly Roberson, District 104; Roderick Vereen, attorney; Andre Williams, attorney, Miami Gardens city councilman.

Thanks to the Young Democrats for putting on a rousing candidates forum for the congressional race for District 17. Now held by Kendrick Meek, who's running for US Senate, this seat in the US House will most likely go to the Democratic candidate chosen in the Aug. 24 primary. With the exception of Vereen, all the candidates above are Democrats, and he told your blogger he's a Democrat, too, but he prefers to run against one person in the November general election rather than 10 in the primary. So he's a nominal independent at this point.

Also running but arriving later than this photo is Scott Galvin, a city commissioner in North Miami and former congressional staffer for Carrie Meek. And not present for various reasons were State Rep. James Bush III, District 109; State Sen. Frederica Wilson, District 33; and Shirley Gibson, mayor of Miami Gardens.

FL-25: Joe Garcia campaign points out that the opponent is waffling

What does Joe Garcia say? "What's happening in Arizona should never happen here in Florida" -- that's the way he put it in his campaign kickoff the other day.

DEC and OFA get new directors for 2010 elections

In six months when we’re chalking up now-unexpected victories in our difficult local electoral world, Monday May 24 may be a date we Miami-Dade Democrats look back at as a milestone in our rise to a successful political operation.

On this day two personnel shifts were presented to us. The Miami-Dade Democratic Party took on a new executive director, Ric Herrero, who appeared at a meeting of the party’s Steering Committee. And the new regional field director for Organizing For America, Marcelo Marco Ramirez, was introduced to an enthusiastic group of OFA activists as replacement for the highly esteemed Brad Schenck, who’s destined for something more national in scope (details later, we hope).

Your blogger had the pleasure of being at both events, even though they both started at 7 p.m. several miles apart in downtown Miami. Got to confess that when I burst into the OFA event at 8:15, people started yelling at Marcelo Ramirez that he’d have to start over again. It got a big laugh, so I imagine that I wasn’t the only one who’d arrived after the new field director started describing his mission.

R U ready? June 5 , less than two weeks away, is the day the OFA will start its nationally featured drive for the November midterm election: Contacting people who voted for the first time in 2008. Make them vote again this year, by hook or … No, only legal stuff is permitted. If you have not signed up to do something, now’s the time to drop in to MyBarackObama.com and pledge yourself to the fun of campaigning again, meeting fellow citizens on their doorsteps or on the phone, and talking politics with them. Saturday June 5 is when we launch again. Be there with OFA. You may already have received this invitation from David Plouffe.

The Miami-Dade Democratic Party is further energized by having the decade of political experience that Ric Herrero brings to the post of executive director, which had been unfilled for over a year.  The party aims to concentrate on gathering in as many Cuban Americans as possible, as well as working to register new voters and to sign people up to vote absentee – vote at home, where you can think about the issues and candidates at your leisure.

Here are a couple of photos (unequal quality, I’m afraid, as I shifted from the simple Flip to a flashy Nikon Coolpix model in the middle of this story) to show the players.

First is Marcelo Ramirez of OFA with some of his activists.

Now a snap of Ric Herrero during the most recent meeting of the Democratic Executive Committee.

And a bonus: as the Steering Committee was about to meet, Chairman Richard Lydecker’s new name partner in his Brickell law firm, former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, dropped in to say hello to the committee. Your blogger jumped up with the new Nikon and said there should be a photo for the blog, and this is it.

FL-25: Joe Garcia kicks off campaign for US House

A good rally was held at Kendall Campus of Miami-Dade College.

FL-25: Joe Garcia video from Collier County meeting

Don't forget our chance to celebrate the Joe Garcia campaign on Tuesday. Be there with Joe at the Miami-Dade college Kendall Campus, Room K-412, Tuesday 11:30 a.m.

Very bad news for Bill McCollum, Good for Alex Sink

Voters really hate clear corruption in their politicians, and the next thing they hate is hypocrisy. This item about the hypocritical anti-gay crusader very nicely reaches up into the office of Attorney General Bill McCollum. Yay!


Let's pound on it for a while and call it a nail in the McCollum coffin. Alex Sink, are you listening?

FORGOT TO SAY:  Kudos to the Equality Florida blog for digging this up.

Kevin Burns announces shift to FL Senate race

This was at Wednesday meeting of Democracy For America-Miami.

MORE INFO:  At the short Miami Herald article on this development. This points out that there now is a primary between Burns and Gwen Margolis for state Senate District 35. This is my district, now held by Dan Gelber, who's running for attorney general.

Time: Obama doing great in runup to 2010 midterms

This excellent summary of the Obama administration so far appears in Time magazine of last week. Not being a regular reader, I missed it. Thanks to following OFA-FL on Twitter, I was reminded and nudged to check it out. If you sometimes struggle in argument against the nay-sayers in our camp as well as in the opposition, it's good to commit some of this article's points to memory.

Let's see: Biden and Emmanuel are pluses, as well as the national security team, who get along and no scandals have emerged. Health care passed and will start to make a difference before the November elections. Obama is as good at personnel decisions in office as he was in the campaign. It will happen again later this year.

Feel better?

One dubious thing after another in Crist statement

Memo to self: Listen to what they’re saying, and analyze.

This strikes me as a mission for the next six months, right up to election day, Nov. 2. I’ve been trying to do this with Marco Rubio, who sometimes demands of his audience: “Now listen to what I’m saying. Listen!” And then he tells a whopper. As if “Listen to what I’m saying” is anesthesia of the brain and auditory nerves, and no one will challenge his saying, for instance, that the United States is great because it’s the only place on earth where you can write a business plan  on a cocktail napkin and then go out and get wealthy.  What? You can do that lots of places. Probably Communist China is the best place for that trick. Especially if you’re a Communist.

Yesterday Gov. Charlie Crist spoke for less than six minutes announcing his switch to running for US Senate as a former Republican, and if you wade through the platitudes, you’ll find quite a few examples of doubt-provoking statements.

My crude Flip video-editing skills may not be fully up to the challenge of describing on video how it went, so I’m adding some written commentary here so that when you get to the video down below, you’ll know what I’m talking about.

He starts, for instance, by saying his decision to run without a party label says more about the United States and Florida than it does about himself. Seems pretty dubious to me. He’s the one dragging in the polls as a Republican. If it must  point at something other than Charlie Crist, how about pointing at the Republican Party, which is riven by ideology and corruption?

Next clip declares that our political system is broken. Again, it’s really the Republican Party and its divisions that are highlighted by Crist's exit from the GOP. The broken political system is better seen when one looks at the Republicans in the US Senate, the Party of No.

Easy thing would have been to run for governor? Wait a minute! Way back months ago when Mel Martinez followed Sarah Palin in quitting his/her elected office well before time done/job done, there was speculation that Crist would bail out of the governorship because Florida was heading for unemployment like seldom before, and he’d be blamed for that if he ran for re-election as governor. So I don’t think he’d have had an easy run. I think his career is at an end. And the jobless rate is still over 12 percent, as Democrat Kendrick Meek reminds us along with the fact that Crist and Rubio are the political authors of the misdirection in the Florida economy.



Note: the tipoff in the example above is that he starts with the word frankly -- a major clue that the next phrase will be untrue. "Frankly, the easy thing for me would have been to run for re-election as governor."

To continue, Crist talks about his brilliant decisions and declares that he’s stopped off-shore drilling. What? What was it that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico the other day? It doesn’t seem he stopped it, not at all. But it was a pretty good applause line.

Then he says he’s going to be with us forever. Forever! What more can I say?

FL-25: Crist switch gets the Republican name-callers into high gear

OK, the headline is a little premature. So far I've only got one Republican name-caller, but I'm sure there will be more.

The first out of the blocks is David Rivera, known on this blog as the Republican likely to be Joe Garcia's opponent for the US House in District 25. Last time we wrote about him, his ethical standards were quite low -- way behind even Jeb Bush in the ethical arena -- and now he's very high in the name-calling arena.

Read it on Naked Politics, the Herald's political blog, where Rivera says that what Crist is doing is the biggest betrayal in US history since Benedict Arnold. Wow! That's really big. Like almost sinking the American Revolution, George Washington and all. And what's Crist's offense? Dropping the ID of the party that has already dropped him -- that's what Crist is doing.

Now let's start looking for all the photos of David Rivera and Charlie Crist in fond embrace.

And while we may be distracted for a day or two by Crist's maneuver, remember that we will have to get back to listening to what Rivera says and searching for fact and meaning.